Tin prices were driven by macro tailwinds and high market sentiment, with open interest continuing to rise in the night session. [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on November 13, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) continued to see high market sentiment during the night session, with tin prices rising on increased positions after opening and maintaining high-level consolidation, closing at 298,050 yuan/mt, up 2.24% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) At the 12th China (Suzhou) Battery New Energy Industry International Summit Forum, Yuan Chengyin, Secretary General of the China Automotive Chip Industry Innovation Strategic Alliance, stated that the alliance has established a RISC-V working group with several car makers, including Dongfeng Motor and Great Wall Motor, to promote the large-scale application of related chips. There are many collaboration points in the battery sector, and similar demands were encountered when communicating with several overseas producers recently, namely using RISC-V to develop better open-source content. It is believed that new products will be launched successively in the future. (2) Data from the Passenger Car Association showed that from November 1–9, retail sales in the national passenger vehicle market reached 415,000 units, down 19% YoY and 4% MoM, with cumulative retail sales of 9.671 million units so far this year, up 7% YoY; wholesale sales by passenger vehicle producers totaled 468,000 units from November 1–9, down 22% YoY but up 48% MoM, with cumulative wholesale sales of 4.242 million units so far this year, up 11% YoY. (3) After China's Ministry of Commerce announced an export exemption for Nexperia chips, automotive parts manufacturers such as Aumovio, a subsidiary of Germany's Continental, have received Nexperia chips from China. An Aumovio executive stated that previously planned holiday shutdown measures may no longer be necessary. Honda Executive Vice President Katsuya Hara also confirmed receiving notification of shipments starting from China and is working to resume factory production. Volkswagen China head Ralf Brandstätter revealed that the automotive industry has received the first batch of chips and expressed attention to the quick response from China's Ministry of Commerce.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas like Yunnan, and most smelters are expected to maintain stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream purchases are relatively cautious, and high prices are noticeably suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in traditional sectors.

Spot market: Yesterday, tin prices surged to 298,000 yuan/mt, driven by macro tailwinds and high market sentiment, but most downstream enterprises showed fear of high prices, leading to a temporary halt in purchasing activities. Trading in the spot market was largely stagnant yesterday, with most traders trading around 10 mt.

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